Thursday, January 26, 2006

Market Analysis Mumbo Jumbo

I really wish I understood the stock market better. It seems like the country is run by the market. Possibly even the world. We use it to justify all sorts of decisions. "We can't tax businesses because the market is down" or "We have to allow lenders to make loans that are almost certain to ruin people so because the market is down". And we have analysts who are supposed to keep close tabs on companies and make recommendations as to whether or not you should buy a stock. About two weeks ago, a report came out saying that analyst Stifel Nicolaus had downgraded a stock I'm interested in. Before the comment, the stock was at 40.19. After the announcement, there was no news out of the company or a week. The price crept down to 38.21. Since that day, news has come out of good performance in both the company and the sector. It's trading right now at 45 and they haven't even announced the fourth quarter numbers yet. So, I guess what I'm saying is WTF? In the absence of news, analysts influence the markets directly based on their secret formulas, but if this one was wrong, how many others were wrong? And people are making financial decisions based on this? Spaghetti-monster help us all.

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